KANTAR Consumer Index =   -38.2

+0.1

September
2022 Return to the most recent month

KANTAR Consumer Index

Information

KANTAR Consumer Index – it reflects the current assessments and forecasts of the country’s economic situation and the economic standing of households.
KANTAR Consumer Index is based on five specific indices obtained from KANTAR Polska monthly surveys. The respondents are asked to assess Poland’s economic situation and the economic standing of their own households. The forecasts for those spheres are built for a 12-month time horizon. The value of the KANTAR Consumer Index is obtained through aggregation of balances of positive and negative assessments for the monitored spheres: the country’s economy and financial standing of households. KANTAR Consumer Index may range from 100 to 100.
The index questions have been asked in the same wording and sequence since 1994, which ensures comparability of results over time.
The monthly surveys cover a representative nation-wide sample of N=1000 Poland’s residents aged 15+.
   Choose a year and click on the month number on the chart:
 10
-20
-50
03/22
04/22
05/22
06/22
07/22
08/22
09/22
10/22
11/22
12/22
01/23
02/23
03/23
-29.3
-33.9
-33.9
-36.9
-44.3
-38.3
-38.2
-39.7
-42.6
-40.4
-35.9
-29.9
-36.5

Age

Information

AgeRespondents’ answers by age bands: up to 24; 25 to 39; 40 to 54; 55+

  • up to 24 -27.7 Na górę
  • 25 to 39 -47.6 Na dół
  • 40 to 54 -41.8 Na dół
  • 55+ -35.0 Na górę

Domicile

Information

Domicile – Respondents’ answers by domicile, based on size of domicile: rural; urban up to 19,999; urban up to 49,999; urban up to 200,000; urban over 200,000.
This material shows three selected variables: rural; urban up to 200,000; urban over 200,000.
  • Rural -33.5 Na górę
  • Urban
    up to 200,000     -38.9 Na dół
  • Urban
    over 200,000     -47.0 Na dół

Education

Information

Education – Answers by education level: primary/lower secondary, basic vocational, secondary, tertiary.

  • Primary/Lower secondary -22.7 Na górę
  • Basic vocational -37.9 Na górę
  • Secondary -39.6 Na dół
  • Tertiary -48.5 Na dół

Household size

Information

Household size – Respondents’ answers by number of members in the household: 1, 2, 3+.

  • 1 -42.4 Na dół
  • 2 -38.9 Na dół
  • 3+ -35.4 Na górę

Employment

Information

Employment – Respondents’ answers by occupational group: manual workers, farmers, clerks, managers, students, retirees, housewives, unemployed. In this material we are showing two selected variables: unemployed and managers.

  • Unemployed
    • 0.3
  • Managers
    • -43.1

Specific indices

Information

Specific indices – those are sets of four questions based on which the respondents assess the situation in Poland and their financial status over the past 12 months and forecast those phenomena for the next year. The questions have been asked in the same wording and sequence since the start of this study in 1994.

The number displayed next to the index informs about current value of the indicator in a particular month. Whereas the value in the box indicates how the value of particular index has changed in comparison to the previous month.
  • SE  -35.0 Information

    SE (Status of the economy) this index is based on the following question: How would you assess the current overall economic situation in Poland? good, partly good, partly bad, bad.

    The number displayed next to the index informs about current value of the indicator in a particular month. Whereas the value in the box indicates how the value of particular index has changed in comparison to the previous month.

    Status of the economy

    +1

  • SE*  -40.0 Information

    SE* (Status of the economy – forecast) this forecast of the status of the economy is based on the following question: Do you think that the economic situation in Poland in one year’s time will…? improve, deteriorate, remain unchanged?

    The number displayed next to the index informs about current value of the indicator in a particular month. Whereas the value in the box indicates how the value of particular index has changed in comparison to the previous month.

    Status of the economy – forecast

    +3

  • SH  -5.0 Information

    SH – this index reflects the status of households and is based on the following question: Compared with the situation one year ago, is the current financial situation of your household…? better, the same, worse.

    The number displayed next to the index informs about current value of the indicator in a particular month. Whereas the value in the box indicates how the value of particular index has changed in comparison to the previous month.

    Status of households

    +5

  • SH*  -26.0 Information

    SH* - this forecast of the status of households is based on the following question: And, thinking of one year from now, will the financial situation of your household…? Improve, remain unchanged, deteriorate.

    The number displayed next to the index informs about current value of the indicator in a particular month. Whereas the value in the box indicates how the value of particular index has changed in comparison to the previous month.

    Status of households – forecasts

    0

Key macroeconomic indices

Information

Key macroeconomic indices – Economic indices play an important role in forecasting the economic situation in the country and in the households. In this publication we present three macroeconomic indices from the Central Statistical Office of Poland (GUS) and the National Bank of Poland (NBP).
Previous month’s data
  • GUS 116.1 Information

    GUS (Consumer spending) - (a change in the total retail sales of goods and services in constant prices versus the respective month of the preceding year). The total retail sales of goods and services: sale of own and consigned goods in retail outlets, food service facilities and other sales outlets (e.g. storage facilities, warehouses) to individual buyers. Retail sales also include data from agent-operated outlets but does not include the value of open-air sales generated by vendors who pay only a stall fee. Retail sales are recorded at prices paid by consumers (transaction prices), including the applicable VAT.

    The number displayed next to the index informs about current value of the indicator in a particular month. Whereas the value in the box indicates how the value of particular index has changed in comparison to the previous month.

    Consumer spending

    +0.5

  • MPiPS 4.9 Information

    Ministry of Labour and Social Policy (Unemployment rate) – The percentage of the unemployed as a share of economically active population (i.e. working and unemployed individuals). The registered unemployment index refers to unemployed individuals registered in local employment offices (the notion of ‘registered unemployed individuals’) and economically active individuals as a total of registered unemployed citizens and those working in the private and public sector. (The number of working individuals does not cover those in active military service or those in public sector institutions which operate in the sphere of national defence and public security).
    Source: www.mpips.gov.pl

    The number displayed next to the index informs about current value of the indicator in a particular month. Whereas the value in the box indicates how the value of particular index has changed in comparison to the previous month.

    Unemployment rate

    0

  • NBP 202.9 Information

    NBP (Balance of consumer credit) - Dues from households (in Polish currency and foreign currencies) comprise loans and credits, repurchased debts, utilised guarantees and warranties as well as interest payable from these subsectors:
    - private individuals,
    - individual farmers,
    - some individual entrepreneurs.
    Source: www.nbp.pl

    The number displayed next to the index informs about current value of the indicator in a particular month. Whereas the value in the box indicates how the value of particular index has changed in comparison to the previous month.

    Balance of consumer credit

    0

Media sentiment

Information

Media sentiment – the situation of Poland’s economy and associated economies is reflected in the media. The Newspoint Internet monitoring was used to check the frequencies of phrases describing economic phenomena in approx. 35,000 subdomains of Polish web portals.

The number displayed next to the index informs about current value of the indicator in a particular month. Whereas the value in the box indicates how the value of particular index has changed in comparison to the previous month.
Previous month’s data
  • Economic
    sentiment

    60

    +8
    Informacje

    – this index is calculated by subtracting the share of publications about unfavourable phenomena in the economy from the share of publications about favourable phenomena. The analysis covers key words/phrases for crisis and economic downturn:

    bad economic sentiment,
    recession
    economic crisis
    financial crisis
    , economic downturn
    economic slump
    economic collapse,
    economic depression,
    economic weakening,
    economic slowdown,
    declined dynamics of economic growth
    Polish economy slowing down
    falling prices
    and key words/phrases for economic boom and recovery:

    good economic sentiment,
    economic boom,
    financial boom,
    economic growth,
    economic development,
    economic prosperity,
    acceleration in the economy,
    better performance of Poland’s economy,
    economic revival,
    economy bouncing back,
    accelerated economic growth,
    accelerated dynamics of economic growth,
    Polish economy accelerating,
    rising prices.

    The number displayed next to the index informs about current value of the indicator in a particular month. Whereas the value in the box indicates how the value of particular index has changed in comparison to the previous month.

  • Demand

    -3

    -17
    Informacje

    this index is calculated by subtracting the share of publications about unfavourable phenomena associated with consumption and demand from the share of publications about favourable phenomena. The analysis covers key words/phrases for crisis and economic downturn:

    falling salaries and wages,
    falling consumption,
    falling demand,
    demand has fallen,
    declining income,
    purchasing power has declined,
    purchasing power has shrunk
    and key words/phrases for economic boom and recovery:

    increased consumption,
    increased demand,
    demand has increased,
    increased salaries and wages,
    increased income,
    purchasing power has increased,
    purchasing power has gone up

    Our analysis covers the period between the first and the last day of the preceding month.

    The number displayed next to the index informs about current value of the indicator in a particular month. Whereas the value in the box indicates how the value of particular index has changed in comparison to the previous month.


  • Employment

    45

    -20
    Informacje

    this index is calculated by subtracting the share of publications about unfavourable phenomena associated with employment from the share of publications about favourable phenomena. The analysis covers key words/phrases for crisis and economic downturn:

    declining employment,
    group lay-offs,
    staff reductions,
    loss of jobs,
    increased unemployment,
    higher unemployment rate,
    high unemployment

    and key words/phrases for economic boom and recovery:
    increasing employment,
    new jobs,
    new full-time positions,
    declining unemployment,
    declining unemployment rate,
    low unemployment

    Our analysis covers the period between the first and the last day of the preceding month.

    The number displayed next to the index informs about current value of the indicator in a particular month. Whereas the value in the box indicates how the value of particular index has changed in comparison to the previous month.

  • Investments

    12

    -8
    Informacje

    this index is calculated by subtracting the share of online publications about unfavourable phenomena associated with investments from the share of publications about favourable phenomena. The analysis covers key words/phrases for crisis and economic downturn:

    reduced capital investments,
    falling investments,
    fewer investments,
    declining industrial output

    and key words/phrases for economic boom and recovery:

    increased capital investments,
    increased investments,
    more investments,
    increased industrial output

    Our analysis covers the period between the first and the last day of the preceding month.


    The number displayed next to the index informs about current value of the indicator in a particular month. Whereas the value in the box indicates how the value of particular index has changed in comparison to the previous month.

Growth driven by indifference

 

In June, the result of the Consumer Index indicates increasing optimism, which, in the long run, results in a continuation of the upward trend. In particular, an increase in the sentiment index can be noted in relation to the forecast of the economic situation of the country and the assessment of changes in the financial situation of households. On the surface, it seems that the situation is improving, but when we look closely at the results, we can see a tendency for negative opinions to decrease in favor of indifferent ones. Thus, the financial situation of households more often does not change compared to the situation from a year ago, and Poles more often say that the economic situation of Poland will not change in a year's time. The reason for this state of affairs may be the level of inflation, which began to grow and worsen the material status of Poles just last year.

 

 

We will soon see if and when the Consumer Index will be driven by optimism rather than indifference.

 

Anna Trząsalska

Strategic Social Research Specialist

Kantar Public