Do we have reasons to be optimistic?
Following several months of record-breaking lows, the Kantar Consumer Index finally recovered to some extent in December. This increase in the value of the primary index results from the growth of its individual components, although to a varying degree. As it turns out, predictions for the Polish economy as a whole improved slightly more significantly, with perceptions of the status of households noting a somewhat less pronounced recovery. Interestingly, the more favourable result of the status of the economy index can be attributed to the oldest consumer group with relatively low income. On the other hand, consumers with mid-range income and managers affected the indicator describing the status of households the most significantly.
On the list of important events that directly affect consumer sentiment, the turn of November was dominated by the subject of vaccines and lifting of the shopping mall trading ban. Contracts regulating deliveries of the initial vaccine batches were established successfully, with a distribution system put in place as well. At the same time, it was announced that the trade restrictions would be decreased considerably at least in the days before Christmas. These circumstances, along with the Christmas season being just round the corner, set consumers in a good mood, and this may have affected our Consumer Index as well. When the study was live, consumers were not yet aware of the restrictions scheduled for after Christmas, and they had not yet heard the unsettling reports about a new coronavirus mutation. This means that we will have to wait several months to see if this recent improvement is going to be an actual trend reversal, or simply a minor correction of the previous dips.